Looking at the state of Nigeria’s World Cup qualification campaign, this is certainly not how the three-time African champions would have imagined it.
For a squad overflowing with individual talent, the prospect of missing out on the 2026 FIFA World Cup feels more real than ever. But while the road is steep, the journey isn’t over just yet.
The Super Eagles’ chances took a significant blow in March when they were held to a frustrating 1-1 draw at home by Zimbabwe.
That result, combined with earlier missteps in the qualifiers, left them with just seven points from six matches; six points adrift of Group C leaders South Africa.
It’s been a rocky start. Nigeria collected only three points from a possible 12 in their first four games. A managerial change followed, with a renewed sense of hope leading into March’s international window.
The 2-0 win against Rwanda away seemed like a turning point, but the draw against Zimbabwe quickly brought the optimism crashing down.
Now, to keep their World Cup dream alive, Nigeria must win all four of their remaining fixtures.
But there is a glimmer of hope.
South Africa currently leads the group with 13 points. However, reports suggest they may face a three-point deduction for fielding Teboho Mokoena, who was ineligible due to yellow card accumulation.
If enforced, that penalty could swing momentum in Nigeria’s favour, especially since the Super Eagles still have to face Bafana Bafana in the reverse fixture.
That match could be crucial. A win against South Africa, combined with a potential deduction, could see the six-point gap wiped out in one fell swoop.
Nigeria also faces Rwanda, Benin Republic, and Lesotho, teams they must defeat to stand any chance of finishing top of the group.
If they win all four remaining matches, Nigeria will finish with 19 points. That total could be enough to top the group outright especially if South Africa drops points or the deduction is confirmed.
Even if they don’t top the group, the Eagles could still qualify through a second route.
The Playoff Path
Africa has nine automatic qualification spots for the 2026 World Cup, with a 10th available via an intercontinental playoff. The top team in each group qualifies directly, while the four best runners-up across all groups will enter a playoff to compete for that final slot.
As it stands, the four teams in playoff positions include Gabon (15 points), Namibia (12), Mozambique (12), and Burkina Faso (11).
Should Nigeria win their remaining games and reach 19 points, they stand a solid chance of making the playoff, depending on other results across the continent.
While the math may offer a way through, performances on the pitch remain Nigeria’s biggest challenge.
For a team loaded with stars, from Victor Osimhen to Ademola Lookman and Alex Iwobi, the Super Eagles have struggled to deliver when it matters most.
Legendary midfielder Jay-Jay Okocha summed it up best:
“If we want to qualify, those are the games that we need to win. I believe that we can win there, but it’s definitely not going to be easy,” he said in an interview with iDiski Times.
Indeed, it won’t be easy. But the Super Eagles must rise to the occasion. Missing back-to-back World Cups would be unprecedented since their debut in 1994.
For a nation of Nigeria’s footballing pedigree, that would be nothing short of an embarrassment.
The mission is clear. Win all remaining matches. Hope for a slip-up from South Africa. And if necessary, fight through the playoff. The road to the USA, Canada, and Mexico is narrow, but it’s still open.
